Accounting for Natural Uncertainty Within Monitoring Systems for Induced Seismicity Based on Earthquake Magnitudes

To reduce the probability of future large earthquakes, traffic light systems (TLSs) define appropriate reactions to observed induced seismicity depending on each event's range local earthquake magnitude ( M L ). The impact velocity uncertainties and station site effects may be greater than a whole unit , which can make difference between decision continue (“green” TLS zone) an immediate stop operations (“red” zone). We show how include these in thresholds such that events only exceed threshold with fixed probability. This set by regulators reflect their tolerance risk. demonstrate new TLS, red-light would have been encountered earlier hydraulic fracturing operation at Preston New Road, UK, halting potentially avoiding later events. It is therefore critical establish permit account for when managing